Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 15 games
Lionsignature
Save- · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
Banesignature
Save- · 8 games
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
Medusasignature
Nightfall · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DM · 7 games
Linaoften banned
gpK~ · 7 games
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
337 picks · 489 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 168 bans
Bane
284 picks · 222 bans
Weaver
275 picks · 613 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 389 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 718 bans
Ember Spirit
221 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
217 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:30
Virtus.pro 83%AS Monaco Gambit 17%
The model gave 83% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 36:41.
Game 2prediction correct18:8
Virtus.pro 83%AS Monaco Gambit 17%
The model gave 83% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 21:52.
Game 3prediction correct22:5
Virtus.pro 83%AS Monaco Gambit 17%
The model gave 83% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 83%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3