Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Treant Protector
Nuages · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Nuages · 3 games
Dragon Knight
mini-` · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 3 games
Lion
Jupiter · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 3 games
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
335 picks · 489 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 167 bans
Bane
284 picks · 222 bans
Weaver
275 picks · 611 bans
Tidehunter
253 picks · 389 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 717 bans
Ember Spirit
220 picks · 299 bans
Disruptor
217 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:37
Infinity Esports 42%Balrogs 58%
The model gave 58% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 27:58.
Game 2prediction correct41:29
Infinity Esports 42%Balrogs 58%
The model gave 58% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 48:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 58%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2