Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Linaoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
Bane
Dy · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 2 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Srf · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Another · 2 games
Shadow Fiend
Paparazi · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
336 picks · 484 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 167 bans
Bane
280 picks · 220 bans
Weaver
275 picks · 604 bans
Tidehunter
256 picks · 392 bans
Monkey King
251 picks · 716 bans
Ember Spirit
220 picks · 304 bans
Disruptor
219 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:4
Team MagMa 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 24:42.
Game 2prediction missed43:18
Team MagMa 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 54%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2