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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XCJ · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Son GoKu · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Zyd · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
September · 5 games
40%
Axe
Axe
Son GoKu · 4 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
7e · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
XCJ · 4 games
25%

Aster.Aries

Doom
Doomsignature
生死 · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
TK · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
生死 · 6 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fantasy · 6 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 483 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
291 picks · 167 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
281 picks · 218 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
275 picks · 604 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
257 picks · 395 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
253 picks · 717 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
221 picks · 304 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
217 picks · 135 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 75%
Hero pool strength53% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:10
Sparking Arrow Gaming 36%Aster.Aries 64%
The model gave 64% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaDstones
36% · 58 games53% · 134 games
Templar AssassinUlu
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorMS
50% · 101 game52% · 71 game
Windrangerphoenix
Windranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFlyby
57% · 63 games47% · 58 games
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireSon GoKu
52% · 151 game56% · 80 games
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
Treant Protector
Disruptor
DisruptorXCJ
53% · 108 games43% · 138 games
IoTK
Io
Game 2prediction missed38:29
Sparking Arrow Gaming 39%Aster.Aries 61%
The model gave 61% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 48:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomFlyby
46% · 33 games43% · 80 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Lifestealer
LifestealerMS
56% · 39 games40% · 68 games
Queen of Painphoenix
Queen of Pain
Razor
RazorDstones
55% · 61 game65% · 26 games
Outworld Destroyer生死
Outworld Destroyer
Snapfire
SnapfireSon GoKu
52% · 156 games49% · 81 game
Ogre MagiRedPanda
Ogre Magi
Disruptor
DisruptorXCJ
57% · 99 games46% · 133 games
IoTK
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 72%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2