Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Arkosh Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Lion
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
337 picks · 480 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 167 bans
Bane
280 picks · 218 bans
Weaver
274 picks · 601 bans
Tidehunter
256 picks · 393 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 717 bans
Ember Spirit
221 picks · 304 bans
Disruptor
216 picks · 135 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 14%
Hero pool strength52% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:11
Quincy Crew 82%Arkosh Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 25:31.
Game 2prediction missed40:17
Quincy Crew 82%Arkosh Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 23:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 82%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2