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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
SkyLark · 13 games
62%
Weaver
Weaversignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Bane
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 9 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
SsaSpartan · 8 games
50%

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 5 games
40%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 3 games
67%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 477 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
285 picks · 164 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
275 picks · 217 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
268 picks · 595 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
254 picks · 711 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 394 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 302 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
214 picks · 100 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:19
Brame 64%IVY 36%
The model gave 64% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNefrit
51% · 57 games44% · 77 games
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Phantom Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawSkyLark
46% · 81 game51% · 61 game
KunkkaCopy
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritW1sh-
51% · 104 games51% · 93 games
BloodseekerTheBloodySky
Bloodseeker
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
59% · 31 game48% · 103 games
Dark WillowjAMES
Dark Willow
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
54% · 61 game
Game 2prediction missed22:45
Brame 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by IVY in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNefrit
40% · 91 game53% · 144 games
MedusaLowskill
Medusa
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
52% · 60 games56% · 76 games
RazorTheBloodySky
Razor
Invoker
InvokerW1sh-
48% · 112 games52% · 180 games
Earth SpiritCopy
Earth Spirit
Weaver
WeaverSsaSpartan
48% · 83 games53% · 52 games
Spirit BreakerjAMES
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
TuskCTOMAHEH1
44% · 106 games
Game 3prediction correct31:19
Brame 64%IVY 36%
The model gave 64% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 28:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNefrit
51% · 177 games56% · 61 game
LifestealerLowskill
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaW1sh-
45% · 96 games44% · 111 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarSkyLark
57% · 70 games47% · 319 games
MarsTheBloodySky
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
55% · 90 games49% · 102 games
WeaverjAMES
Weaver
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
49% · 160 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 73%
Series resultBrame 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3