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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 20 games
80%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 18 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
80%
Lion
Lionsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Moon · 13 games
62%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 24 games
75%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 12 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Fearless · 9 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Q · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 476 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
283 picks · 164 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
277 picks · 215 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
267 picks · 595 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
256 picks · 393 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
254 picks · 711 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
218 picks · 302 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
214 picks · 99 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total54% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:23
Team SMG 52%Motivate.Trust Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMidOne
50% · 63 games58% · 72 games
Wraith KingJaCkky
Wraith King
Windranger
WindrangerMoon
46% · 64 games45% · 66 games
LinaFearless
Lina
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAhFu
41% · 42 games45% · 95 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorRoddgeee
54% · 110 games60% · 46 games
Shadow Demonboombell
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct44:29
Team SMG 51%Motivate.Trust Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaMidOne
54% · 88 games52% · 119 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Lina
LinaMoon
48% · 156 games47% · 128 games
Ember SpiritFearless
Ember Spirit
Weaver
WeaverAhFu
51% · 120 games50% · 155 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
52% · 102 games45% · 64 games
Ogre Magiboombell
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 54%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2