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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 12 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Lym- · 12 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 11 games
27%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 9 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MamangDaya · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 7 games
57%

Talon Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fly · 6 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hyde · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Gabbi · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hyde · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Gabbi · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
kpii · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 475 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
279 picks · 210 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
279 picks · 160 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
267 picks · 587 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
260 picks · 392 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
253 picks · 712 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
218 picks · 300 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
214 picks · 141 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 55%
Hero pool strength66% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:31
Army Geniuses 33%Talon Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedb-
51% · 167 games50% · 110 games
KunkkaMikoto
Kunkka
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
45% · 133 games49% · 173 games
Monkey KingGabbi
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerAzur4
50% · 169 games48% · 67 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Windranger
WindrangerLym-
64% · 95 games47% · 286 games
LionHyde
Lion
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterVarizh
44% · 128 games54% · 56 games
Ogre MagiFly
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed29:29
Army Geniuses 32%Talon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAzur4
41% · 149 games62% · 58 games
SpectreGabbi
Spectre
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdb-
47% · 70 games55% · 166 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierwoMy
45% · 212 games56% · 42 games
Spirit Breakerkpii
Spirit Breaker
Windranger
WindrangerLym-
51% · 80 games51% · 170 games
Monkey KingHyde
Monkey King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterVarizh
52% · 124 games45% · 199 games
GrimstrokeFly
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct17:38
Army Geniuses 35%Talon Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursadb-
44% · 105 games57% · 32 games
Anti-MageGabbi
Anti-Mage
Razor
RazorAzur4
52% · 87 games47% · 120 games
InvokerMikoto
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingwoMy
43% · 93 games51% · 141 game
Death Prophetkpii
Death Prophet
Mirana
MiranaLym-
47% · 152 games58% · 177 games
Monkey KingHyde
Monkey King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterVarizh
45% · 92 games62% · 59 games
Ogre MagiFly
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 77%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3