Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Abaddon
Overlom · 1 game
Dark Willow
bgod · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 1 game
Hoodwink
bgod · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Overlom · 1 game
Omniknight
Overlom · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
328 picks · 475 bans
Snapfire
277 picks · 158 bans
Bane
276 picks · 212 bans
Weaver
267 picks · 582 bans
Tidehunter
259 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
252 picks · 711 bans
Ember Spirit
217 picks · 299 bans
Disruptor
214 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:29
KBU.US 61%5RATFORCESTAFF 39%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 34:18.
Game 2prediction missed21:28
KBU.US 61%5RATFORCESTAFF 39%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:49.
Game 3prediction missed24:34
KBU.US 61%5RATFORCESTAFF 39%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 34:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 61%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3