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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 26 games
65%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 26 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 24 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
29%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 13 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
25%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Limitless · 12 games
33%

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 17 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 12 games
75%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 11 games
82%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
Zayac · 10 games
60%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 8 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 474 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
276 picks · 212 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
276 picks · 157 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
266 picks · 581 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
259 picks · 391 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
252 picks · 709 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
216 picks · 299 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
214 picks · 139 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:35
B8 Esports 31%Hydra 69%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
45% · 89 games50% · 46 games
Phantom AssassinKami
Phantom Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDendi
52% · 76 games43% · 92 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnuspJonn
58% · 44 games44% · 22 games
UnderlordBlizzy
Underlord
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLagoona
53% · 80 games57% · 53 games
Treant ProtectorZayac
Treant Protector
49% · 76 games
WeaverMuka
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct19:28
B8 Esports 31%Hydra 69%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 45:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursav1olent-
48% · 160 games55% · 110 games
Wraith KingKami
Wraith King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDendi
40% · 77 games50% · 160 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Magnus
MagnuspJonn
54% · 116 games51% · 74 games
KunkkaBlizzy
Kunkka
Mirana
MiranaLagoona
56% · 204 games43% · 90 games
RubickMuka
Rubick
51% · 123 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 81%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2