Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 14 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 14 games
Abaddon
Panto · 12 games
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
Marssignature
chshrct · 11 games
Hoodwink
Panto · 10 games
Miranasignature
yamich · 10 games
Fantastic Five
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 8 games
Mirana
Muka · 8 games
Clockwerk
633 · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
328 picks · 472 bans
Bane
278 picks · 213 bans
Snapfire
276 picks · 157 bans
Weaver
265 picks · 580 bans
Tidehunter
261 picks · 393 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 710 bans
Ember Spirit
217 picks · 299 bans
Disruptor
214 picks · 139 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:9
Winstrike Team 50%Fantastic Five 50%
The model gave 50% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarNoticed
LunaArk
Wraith KingDaxak
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
InvokerDodren
Snapfireforcemajor
WeaverSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction correct30:6
Winstrike Team 53%Fantastic Five 47%
The model gave 53% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 31:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaDaxak
Phantom LancerArk
Outworld DestroyerDodren
TimbersawMalr1ne
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
Spirit BreakerNoticed
Miranaforcemajor
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 53%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2