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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Neptune Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CDEC Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neptune Gaming

Lion
Lion
fy · 16 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Yang · 16 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
fy · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Yang · 12 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
dolem · 10 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 9 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Somnus · 9 games
78%

CDEC Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 472 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
282 picks · 215 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
276 picks · 156 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
262 picks · 579 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 396 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
259 picks · 707 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
218 picks · 301 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
215 picks · 100 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 29%
Hero pool strength53% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:35
Neptune Gaming 31%CDEC Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 39:45.
Game 2prediction missed22:4
Neptune Gaming 31%CDEC Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Neptune Gaming in 29:13.
Game 3prediction missed30:24
Neptune Gaming 31%CDEC Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Neptune Gaming in 51:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 69%
Series resultNeptune Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3