Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 20 games
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
Lionsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Miranasignature
Moon · 13 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
323 picks · 468 bans
Bane
280 picks · 212 bans
Snapfire
272 picks · 152 bans
Tidehunter
261 picks · 395 bans
Weaver
260 picks · 569 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 703 bans
Ember Spirit
215 picks · 299 bans
Lion
212 picks · 98 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 72%
Hero pool strength62% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:38
T1 52%Team SMG 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Team SMG in 31:37.
Game 2prediction missed35:17
T1 52%Team SMG 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Team SMG in 30:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 52%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2