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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
cml · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 466 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
277 picks · 212 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
269 picks · 151 bans
47%
Monkey King
Monkey King
261 picks · 701 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 394 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
260 picks · 568 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
215 picks · 297 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
212 picks · 98 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:30
Lilgun 28%Polaris Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 37:54.
Game 2prediction correct24:45
Lilgun 28%Polaris Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 43:14.
Game 3prediction correct33:35
Lilgun 28%Polaris Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 54:40.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 72%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3