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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 17 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Meracle · 12 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 8 games
88%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
71%

Talon Esports

Bane
Bane
Fly · 5 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hyde · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Gabbi · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
kpii · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
kpii · 2 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
kpii · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fly · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
325 picks · 466 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
276 picks · 211 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
267 picks · 150 bans
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 393 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 703 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
260 picks · 565 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
214 picks · 295 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
211 picks · 98 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:34
Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:11.
Game 2prediction missed6:31
Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:18.
Game 3prediction missed38:37
Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:00:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3