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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 29 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 28 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 21 game
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 4 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 3 games
67%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
324 picks · 460 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
273 picks · 209 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
262 picks · 150 bans
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 394 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 698 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
260 picks · 559 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
211 picks · 294 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
211 picks · 98 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Nemiga Gaming 59%IVY 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKiritych
55% · 37 games44% · 57 games
Queen of PainCopy
Queen of Pain
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTheChosenOne
50% · 50 games57% · 56 games
RazorLowskill
Razor
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
55% · 64 games42% · 73 games
TimbersawTheBloodySky
Timbersaw
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerHeaven
52% · 22 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritVANSKOR
45% · 13 games
Game 2prediction correct23:4
Nemiga Gaming 58%IVY 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 17:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKiritych
53% · 87 games49% · 63 games
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
45% · 140 games54% · 140 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderTheChosenOne
52% · 57 games53% · 261 game
MarsTheBloodySky
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireHeaven
45% · 173 games
Visage
VisageVANSKOR
45% · 7 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 65%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2