Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC Predatorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
TNC Predator
Dragon Knight
Bok · 7 games
Lionsignature
Tims · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Boomy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Armel · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Boomy · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Boomy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
320 picks · 460 bans
Bane
278 picks · 208 bans
Monkey King
272 picks · 696 bans
Tidehunter
265 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
260 picks · 146 bans
Weaver
258 picks · 552 bans
Lion
214 picks · 98 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% TNC Predator
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total64% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:26
Fnatic 64%TNC Predator 36%
The model gave 64% on Fnatic — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 38:58.
Game 2prediction missed8:22
Fnatic 64%TNC Predator 36%
The model gave 64% on Fnatic — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 32:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 64%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2