Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Cutwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Lunaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Snapfire
Giant · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Earthshaker
dnm · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
dnm · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
dnm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
317 picks · 458 bans
Bane
276 picks · 208 bans
Monkey King
271 picks · 693 bans
Tidehunter
264 picks · 395 bans
Snapfire
260 picks · 143 bans
Weaver
256 picks · 550 bans
Lion
212 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:35
5ManMidas 43%The Cut 57%
The model gave 57% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 32:25.
Game 2prediction correct29:45
5ManMidas 43%The Cut 57%
The model gave 57% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 40:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 57%
Series resultThe Cut 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2