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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
Noticed · 29 games
66%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 28 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
89%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 26 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
70%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 23 games
87%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Dukalis · 22 games
77%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 20 games
85%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 50 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 30 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 30 games
47%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 27 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kaori · 24 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
517 picks · 316 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
438 picks · 213 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 177 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 307 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 504 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 291 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 512 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
278 picks · 133 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 52%
Hero pool strength65% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total79% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:30
PARIVISION 65%Aurora Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:05:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkSatanic
51% · 40 games47% · 226 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
51% · 285 games51% · 189 games
Earth SpiritMikoto
Earth Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNoticed
46% · 100 games56% · 127 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage9Class
46% · 50 games58% · 102 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDukalis
43% · 376 games55% · 207 games
Winter WyvernKaori
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct
PARIVISION 79%Aurora Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION.
Game 4prediction correct44:29
PARIVISION 67%Aurora Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
52% · 242 games52% · 211 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Viper
ViperNo[o]ne
51% · 212 games50% · 349 games
WindrangerMikoto
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
47% · 502 games51% · 309 games
SlardarWs
Slardar
Rubick
Rubick9Class
46% · 453 games54% · 737 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
47% · 368 games50% · 171 game
Winter WyvernKaori
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 79%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3