V-Gaming vs X3 — prediction DCLS 2 2021 6 · Dota 2

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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3

result vs prediction

V-Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

83%17%

probability at match start · final 2:0

X3loss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Linasignature

hAze · 36 games

64%

Lionsignature

ArrOw · 34 games

65%

Shadow Demonsignature

ArrOw · 25 games

68%

Treant Protectorsignature

Malady · 24 games

79%

Disruptor

Malady · 22 games

59%

Invokeroften banned

hAze · 22 games

59%

Marssignature

laise · 20 games

65%

Batridersignature

hAze · 19 games

68%

X3

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

318 picks · 457 bans

50%

Bane

273 picks · 209 bans

60%

Monkey King

271 picks · 690 bans

59%

Tidehunter

263 picks · 397 bans

44%

Snapfire

259 picks · 142 bans

47%

Weaver

253 picks · 549 bans

57%

Lion

212 picks · 96 bans

50%

Void Spirit

207 picks · 240 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)64% vs 40%

Hero pool strength59% V-Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total83% V-Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct34:18

V-Gaming 70%X3 30%

The model gave 70% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 38:56.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo