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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
miCKe · 6 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 5 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
qojqva · 5 games
20%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Boxi · 5 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Boxi · 5 games
60%
Axe
Axe
Boxi · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 4 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Taiga · 4 games
0%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Topson · 11 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Saksa · 8 games
75%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Topson · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
n0tail · 7 games
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Saksa · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
318 picks · 454 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
272 picks · 208 bans
60%
Monkey King
Monkey King
271 picks · 689 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
262 picks · 396 bans
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
256 picks · 142 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
251 picks · 548 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
211 picks · 96 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
207 picks · 240 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:35
Team Liquid 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 45:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMATUMBAMAN
48% · 84 games55% · 147 games
Templar AssassinYuragi
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritmiCKe
44% · 185 games53% · 226 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierzai
50% · 183 games49% · 170 games
Dragon KnightATF
Dragon Knight
Io
IoBoxi
52% · 132 games48% · 255 games
SnapfireTaiga
Snapfire
Lion
LioniNSaNiA
49% · 356 games52% · 142 games
Shadow DemonMisha
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed28:5
Team Liquid 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMATUMBAMAN
59% · 107 games55% · 153 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritmiCKe
56% · 186 games54% · 34 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Magnus
Magnuszai
49% · 97 games53% · 41 game
SlardarATF
Slardar
Weaver
WeaverBoxi
44% · 119 games42% · 145 games
SnapfireTaiga
Snapfire
Dazzle
DazzleiNSaNiA
62% · 8 games40% · 144 games
TidehunterMisha
Tidehunter
Game 3prediction missed38:26
Team Liquid 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:14:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkamiCKe
47% · 112 games51% · 162 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Wraith King
Wraith KingMATUMBAMAN
47% · 126 games55% · 124 games
LunaYuragi
Luna
Enigma
Enigmazai
53% · 43 games41% · 44 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireiNSaNiA
47% · 155 games52% · 111 games
Dark WillowTaiga
Dark Willow
Weaver
WeaverBoxi
48% · 108 games58% · 103 games
BaneMisha
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3