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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
79%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 11 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 11 games
64%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 11 games
82%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Skiter · 10 games
70%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 8 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
iLTW · 8 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
iLTW · 7 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Miracle- · 6 games
67%
Axe
Axe
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
321 picks · 452 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
272 picks · 209 bans
59%
Monkey King
Monkey King
271 picks · 688 bans
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 397 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
256 picks · 140 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
249 picks · 546 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
211 picks · 96 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
207 picks · 239 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:6
Tundra Esports 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
47% · 102 games46% · 120 games
LunaiLTW
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
47% · 85 games53% · 120 games
LinarmN-
Lina
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNine
42% · 39 games56% · 125 games
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingSneyking
45% · 165 games56% · 140 games
WeaverGH
Weaver
Bane
BaneFata
52% · 133 games58% · 19 games
WarlockKuroKy
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct43:17
Tundra Esports 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
48% · 139 games60% · 56 games
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
42% · 105 games38% · 108 games
MorphlingiLTW
Morphling
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyer33
47% · 49 games56% · 103 games
TidehunterrmN-
Tidehunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSneyking
50% · 48 games55% · 77 games
WeaverGH
Weaver
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFata
49% · 134 games57% · 131 game
Monkey KingKuroKy
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 76%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2