Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Lion
TK · 7 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
生死 · 6 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 6 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fantasy · 6 games
Magnusoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
321 picks · 449 bans
Bane
274 picks · 209 bans
Monkey King
273 picks · 686 bans
Tidehunter
262 picks · 400 bans
Snapfire
256 picks · 140 bans
Weaver
247 picks · 544 bans
Lion
211 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Aster.Aries 68%CDEC Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 32:44.
Game 2prediction correct26:7
Aster.Aries 68%CDEC Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 30:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 68%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2