Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ybb Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Linaoften banned
Paparazi · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Srf · 2 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Paparazi · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Another · 1 game
Lich
Dy · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Another · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 1 game
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
319 picks · 446 bans
Monkey King
274 picks · 683 bans
Bane
273 picks · 209 bans
Tidehunter
261 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
252 picks · 138 bans
Weaver
246 picks · 537 bans
Lion
212 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
Xtreme Gaming 52%Ybb Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 52:47.
Game 2prediction correct25:9
Xtreme Gaming 52%Ybb Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:55.
Game 3prediction missed33:33
Xtreme Gaming 52%Ybb Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 38:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 52%
Series resultYbb Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3