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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Neptune Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neptune Gaming

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Yang · 16 games
50%
Lion
Lion
fy · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
fy · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Yang · 12 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 9 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Somnus · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Yang · 9 games
0%

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XCJ · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Zyd · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 5 games
20%
Axe
Axe
Son GoKu · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
September · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Son GoKu · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
319 picks · 447 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
275 picks · 685 bans
60%
Bane
Bane
274 picks · 211 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 401 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
251 picks · 138 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
247 picks · 536 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
211 picks · 99 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
211 picks · 240 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Neptune Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:16
Neptune Gaming 40%Sparking Arrow Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNight
42% · 73 games53% · 195 games
LinaDstones
Lina
Ursa
UrsaFonte
45% · 97 games51% · 105 games
LifestealerMS
Lifestealer
Mars
Marsdolem
48% · 359 games56% · 258 games
PangolierFlyby
Pangolier
Lion
LionHuiHui
47% · 307 games57% · 158 games
IoSon GoKu
Io
Undying
UndyingTrazaM
45% · 46 games53% · 166 games
HoodwinkXCJ
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct7:30
Neptune Gaming 44%Sparking Arrow Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 22:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireNight
46% · 164 games57% · 82 games
DoomFlyby
Doom
Earthshaker
Earthshakerdolem
58% · 55 games46% · 149 games
BloodseekerMS
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierHuiHui
47% · 185 games47% · 122 games
InvokerDstones
Invoker
Death Prophet
Death Prophet小郭嘉
51% · 127 games49% · 73 games
WindrangerSon GoKu
Windranger
53% · 105 games
HoodwinkXCJ
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteSparking Arrow Gaming · 64%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2