Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Electronic Boysloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team DogChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Electronic Boys
Ogre Magi
albinozebra · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
albinozebra · 2 games
Dark Willow
b1kA · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
murd0c · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
murd0c · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Oklahoma · 1 game
Iooften banned
b1kA · 1 game
Team DogChamp
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Bane
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Dragon Knight
lukiluki · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
lukiluki · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
316 picks · 446 bans
Monkey King
275 picks · 684 bans
Bane
273 picks · 210 bans
Tidehunter
261 picks · 401 bans
Weaver
248 picks · 531 bans
Snapfire
247 picks · 137 bans
Void Spirit
210 picks · 240 bans
Lion
209 picks · 101 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Electronic Boys
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total66% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:44
Electronic Boys 42%Team DogChamp 58%
The model gave 58% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 1:00:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magemurd0c
Troll WarlordStoneBank
Ember SpiritOklahoma
Storm SpiritFayde
RazorSpeeed
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
Dark Willowb1kA
Marslukiluki
Banealbinozebra
AbaddonBloody Nine
Game 2prediction missed38:29
Electronic Boys 42%Team DogChamp 58%
The model gave 58% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 46:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinOklahoma
Troll WarlordStoneBank
Slarkmurd0c
Queen of PainFayde
MarsSpeeed
Night Stalkerlukiluki
Snapfireb1kA
Lionyarintheslayer
Ogre Magialbinozebra
AbaddonBloody Nine
Game 3prediction correct17:35
Electronic Boys 42%Team DogChamp 58%
The model gave 58% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 28:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinOklahoma
LinaFayde
Razormurd0c
UrsaStoneBank
TidehunterSpeeed
Pangolierlukiluki
Snapfireb1kA
Hoodwinkyarintheslayer
Ogre Magialbinozebra
DisruptorBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 66%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3