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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 13 games
54%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 12 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 8 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 7 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Zayac · 7 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Blizzy · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
318 picks · 445 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
274 picks · 684 bans
59%
Bane
Bane
273 picks · 209 bans
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
262 picks · 404 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
248 picks · 136 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
248 picks · 526 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
213 picks · 243 bans
45%
Lina
Lina
207 picks · 475 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 68%
Hero pool strength62% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:12
Nemiga Gaming 39%Hydra 61%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 51:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
46% · 135 games51% · 151 game
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAinkrad
57% · 105 games51% · 194 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierTheChosenOne
47% · 190 games54% · 85 games
MagnusBlizzy
Magnus
Mirana
MiranaHeaven
50% · 184 games59% · 26 games
ChenZayac
Chen
Io
IoVANSKOR
46% · 119 games44% · 277 games
LionMuka
Lion
Game 2prediction correct6:27
Nemiga Gaming 35%Hydra 65%
The model gave 65% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingKiritych
50% · 131 game51% · 106 games
Faceless VoidKami
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAinkrad
60% · 104 games39% · 121 game
BatriderAskold
Batrider
Timbersaw
TimbersawTheChosenOne
45% · 131 game51% · 80 games
KunkkaBlizzy
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickHeaven
49% · 107 games49% · 22 games
ChenZayac
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroVANSKOR
47% · 18 games55% · 162 games
MiranaMuka
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct17:30
Nemiga Gaming 36%Hydra 64%
The model gave 64% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAinkrad
38% · 99 games55% · 114 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
40% · 172 games52% · 100 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerTheChosenOne
51% · 48 games57% · 76 games
BeastmasterBlizzy
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
51% · 159 games57% · 69 games
DisruptorZayac
Disruptor
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerVANSKOR
41% · 48 games58% · 167 games
LionMuka
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 69%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3