Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 23 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
Bane
Kaori · 14 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 12 games
IVY
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
318 picks · 443 bans
Bane
278 picks · 207 bans
Monkey King
274 picks · 687 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 409 bans
Snapfire
248 picks · 135 bans
Weaver
248 picks · 522 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 247 bans
Lina
212 picks · 474 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:23
Team Empire 52%IVY 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelightless
Phantom LancerLowskill
Void SpiritShisui
Queen of PainCopy
SlardarGhostik
MarsTheBloodySky
OracleKaori
Io[T]SA
Game 2prediction correct35:4
Team Empire 52%IVY 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 20:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkalightless
Drow RangerLowskill
RazorShisui
MarsTheBloodySky
SlardarGhostik
Death ProphetCopy
OracleKaori
Io[T]SA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 58%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2