Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 13 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 4 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
314 picks · 441 bans
Monkey King
274 picks · 684 bans
Bane
273 picks · 207 bans
Tidehunter
265 picks · 407 bans
Snapfire
246 picks · 134 bans
Weaver
245 picks · 517 bans
Void Spirit
214 picks · 247 bans
Lina
212 picks · 472 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 37%
Hero pool strength61% Hokori
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Thunder Awaken 80%Hokori 20%
The model gave 80% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 30:31.
Game 2prediction correct38:14
Thunder Awaken 80%Hokori 20%
The model gave 80% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 80%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2