Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
308 picks · 442 bans
Bane
271 picks · 202 bans
Monkey King
271 picks · 678 bans
Tidehunter
264 picks · 407 bans
Weaver
245 picks · 508 bans
Snapfire
237 picks · 131 bans
Lina
213 picks · 471 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 248 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total67% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:5
PuckChamp 67%AS Monaco Gambit 33%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 32:54.
Game 2prediction missed20:8
PuckChamp 67%AS Monaco Gambit 33%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 30:56.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 67%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2