Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team MagMawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Hoodwink
XCJ · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 5 games
Axe
Son GoKu · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
September · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Zyd · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Night · 4 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
305 picks · 444 bans
Bane
270 picks · 203 bans
Monkey King
270 picks · 676 bans
Tidehunter
265 picks · 405 bans
Weaver
245 picks · 505 bans
Snapfire
237 picks · 132 bans
Lina
213 picks · 471 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 249 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
Sparking Arrow Gaming 29%Team MagMa 71%
The model gave 71% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 31:33.
Game 2prediction missed38:34
Sparking Arrow Gaming 29%Team MagMa 71%
The model gave 71% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 39:14.
Game 3prediction correct11:28
Sparking Arrow Gaming 29%Team MagMa 71%
The model gave 71% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 31:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 71%
Series resultTeam MagMa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3