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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shenzhenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
TK · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 6 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fantasy · 6 games
33%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
生死 · 5 games
20%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%

Shenzhen

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
302 picks · 442 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
269 picks · 202 bans
59%
Monkey King
Monkey King
267 picks · 680 bans
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
265 picks · 406 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
246 picks · 500 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
234 picks · 132 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
214 picks · 251 bans
44%
Lina
Lina
212 picks · 475 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
Aster.Aries 54%Shenzhen 46%
The model gave 54% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 34:45.
Game 2prediction missed36:34
Aster.Aries 54%Shenzhen 46%
The model gave 54% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 59:46.
Game 3prediction correct17:12
Aster.Aries 54%Shenzhen 46%
The model gave 54% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 32:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 54%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3