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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Neptune Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neptune Gaming

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Yang · 16 games
50%
Lion
Lion
fy · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
fy · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yang · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Somnus · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 9 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Somnus · 9 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 9 games
56%

Xtreme Gaming

Lina
Linaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
300 picks · 442 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
269 picks · 202 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
268 picks · 406 bans
44%
Monkey King
Monkey King
267 picks · 681 bans
60%
Weaver
Weaver
246 picks · 498 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
232 picks · 132 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
215 picks · 252 bans
44%
Lina
Lina
211 picks · 478 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Neptune Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
Neptune Gaming 34%Xtreme Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaFonte
53% · 90 games51% · 167 games
JuggernautAnother
Juggernaut
Mars
Marsdolem
48% · 272 games54% · 222 games
InvokerPaparazi
Invoker
Riki
RikiNight
45% · 38 games55% · 126 games
MagnusSrf
Magnus
Snapfire
SnapfireHuiHui
50% · 113 games45% · 97 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Grimstroke
Grimstroke小郭嘉
44% · 140 games53% · 41 game
SilencerDy
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct8:29
Neptune Gaming 35%Xtreme Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 23:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracFonte
51% · 80 games54% · 247 games
LinaPaparazi
Lina
Mars
Marsdolem
42% · 201 game46% · 53 games
RikiAnother
Riki
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNight
52% · 101 game50% · 117 games
MagnusSrf
Magnus
Snapfire
SnapfireHuiHui
50% · 110 games59% · 92 games
EarthshakerPyw
Earthshaker
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi小郭嘉
44% · 37 games43% · 20 games
LichDy
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2