Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Elder Titan
Puppey · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 5 games
Snapfire
YapzOr · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
296 picks · 438 bans
Monkey King
268 picks · 675 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 406 bans
Bane
265 picks · 201 bans
Weaver
242 picks · 494 bans
Snapfire
228 picks · 128 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 252 bans
Lina
211 picks · 476 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:18
Alliance 40%Team Secret 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:38.
Game 2prediction correct1:14
Alliance 40%Team Secret 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 22:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 60%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2