Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Our Wayloss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Balrogswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Our Way
No games played over 6 months.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
296 picks · 438 bans
Monkey King
268 picks · 675 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 406 bans
Bane
265 picks · 201 bans
Weaver
242 picks · 494 bans
Snapfire
228 picks · 128 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 252 bans
Lina
211 picks · 476 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Our Way
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Our Way
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:31
Our Way 66%Balrogs 34%
The model gave 66% on Our Way — the game was taken by Balrogs in 40:30.
Game 2prediction missed35:33
Our Way 66%Balrogs 34%
The model gave 66% on Our Way — the game was taken by Balrogs in 42:32.
Game 3prediction missed27:24
Our Way 66%Balrogs 34%
The model gave 66% on Our Way — the game was taken by Balrogs in 36:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteOur Way · 66%
Series resultBalrogs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3