Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tickleswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Phoenix
GH · 14 games
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 8 games
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 8 games
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 8 games
Lunasignature
iLTW · 8 games
Team Tickles
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
295 picks · 437 bans
Monkey King
268 picks · 676 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 405 bans
Bane
264 picks · 200 bans
Weaver
242 picks · 492 bans
Snapfire
227 picks · 128 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 253 bans
Lina
213 picks · 476 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:24
Nigma Galaxy 60%Team Tickles 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 30:55.
Game 2prediction missed17:38
Nigma Galaxy 60%Team Tickles 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 33:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 60%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2