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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Bok · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 10 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Boomy · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Boomy · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 8 games
75%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bok · 7 games
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Tims · 7 games
57%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 25 games
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 12 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Fearless · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Q · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
293 picks · 437 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
269 picks · 407 bans
44%
Monkey King
Monkey King
266 picks · 678 bans
60%
Bane
Bane
264 picks · 199 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
241 picks · 491 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
227 picks · 126 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
216 picks · 254 bans
44%
Lina
Lina
215 picks · 477 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:36
TNC Predator 39%Motivate.Trust Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYoungGodLevi
51% · 167 games52% · 246 games
Monkey KingJaCkky
Monkey King
Mars
Marsxiaoyu154
48% · 401 game46% · 312 games
Void SpiritFearless
Void Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYowe
47% · 202 games53% · 139 games
WeaverQ
Weaver
Disruptor
DisruptorFebby
47% · 141 game49% · 324 games
Lionboombell
Lion
Windranger
WindrangerPlayHard
58% · 110 games
Game 2prediction correct10:23
TNC Predator 40%Motivate.Trust Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYoungGodLevi
53% · 33 games45% · 126 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Mars
Marsxiaoyu154
48% · 227 games56% · 70 games
Queen of PainFearless
Queen of Pain
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerYowe
55% · 30 games49% · 159 games
Monkey KingQ
Monkey King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPlayHard
38% · 77 games63% · 54 games
Ogre Magiboombell
Ogre Magi
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFebby
54% · 42 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 65%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2