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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

496 Gaming

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Bombi · 3 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Bombi · 2 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Red · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xsilearn · 1 game
0%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 12 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 11 games
27%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Lym- · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 9 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MamangDaya · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
db- · 7 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
291 picks · 435 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
271 picks · 404 bans
44%
Monkey King
Monkey King
266 picks · 678 bans
60%
Bane
Bane
262 picks · 197 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
240 picks · 488 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
226 picks · 125 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
216 picks · 255 bans
44%
Lina
Lina
213 picks · 478 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 20%
Hero pool strength61% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:31
496 Gaming 52%Army Geniuses 48%
The model gave 52% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGhost
48% · 116 games49% · 145 games
Ursadb-
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxsilearn
49% · 188 games56% · 232 games
Ember SpiritAzur4
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsRed
46% · 359 games63% · 214 games
BeastmasterwoMy
Beastmaster
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeBombi
43% · 237 games49% · 329 games
PangolierLym-
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerOhaiyo
47% · 164 games50% · 144 games
GyrocopterVarizh
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction missed17:30
496 Gaming 53%Army Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerGhost
47% · 69 games53% · 120 games
Medusadb-
Medusa
Windranger
Windrangerxsilearn
57% · 94 games45% · 241 game
Void SpiritAzur4
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsRed
49% · 371 game44% · 88 games
Legion CommanderwoMy
Legion Commander
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernBombi
50% · 93 games48% · 194 games
PangolierLym-
Pangolier
Disruptor
DisruptorOhaiyo
53% · 131 game52% · 115 games
WeaverVarizh
Weaver
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 54%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2