Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 21 game
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Panda · 19 games
Marssignature
Oscar · 18 games
Miranasignature
Michael · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
Oscar · 16 games
Hoodwink
Matthew · 14 games
Lion
Matthew · 14 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
287 picks · 433 bans
Tidehunter
271 picks · 402 bans
Monkey King
265 picks · 676 bans
Bane
261 picks · 195 bans
Weaver
238 picks · 484 bans
Snapfire
226 picks · 125 bans
Lina
213 picks · 477 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 254 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total60% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:3
NoPing VPN 40%Hokori 60%
The model gave 60% on Hokori — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 23:22.
Game 2prediction missed33:16
NoPing VPN 40%Hokori 60%
The model gave 60% on Hokori — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 42:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 60%
Series resultNoPing VPN 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2