Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mind Gamesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Lionsignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
Magnussignature
Collapse · 18 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Miranasignature
Mira · 16 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
288 picks · 431 bans
Tidehunter
272 picks · 405 bans
Monkey King
265 picks · 675 bans
Bane
258 picks · 194 bans
Weaver
237 picks · 481 bans
Snapfire
224 picks · 124 bans
Lina
214 picks · 480 bans
Void Spirit
214 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
Team Spirit 95%Mind Games 5%
The model gave 95% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:31.
Game 2prediction correct28:10
Team Spirit 95%Mind Games 5%
The model gave 95% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 95%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2