Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Neptune Gamingloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shenzhenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neptune Gaming
Tidehunteroften banned
Yang · 16 games
Phoenix
fy · 13 games
Lion
fy · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yang · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
Somnus · 10 games
Hoodwink
fy · 9 games
Linasignature
Somnus · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 9 games
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
288 picks · 431 bans
Tidehunter
272 picks · 403 bans
Monkey King
263 picks · 676 bans
Bane
256 picks · 194 bans
Weaver
236 picks · 479 bans
Snapfire
223 picks · 123 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 257 bans
Lina
212 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Neptune Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Shenzhen
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:34
Neptune Gaming 32%Shenzhen 68%
The model gave 68% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 57:05.
Game 2prediction correct18:26
Neptune Gaming 32%Shenzhen 68%
The model gave 68% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 46:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteShenzhen · 68%
Series resultShenzhen 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2