Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Gaming
Earth Spirit
Demon · 2 games
Nature's Prophet
Mingatte · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Demon · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
ShakaLord · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
ShakaLord · 1 game
Axe
Mingatte · 1 game
Grimstroke
ShakaLord · 1 game
Hoodwink
Demon · 1 game
Gorillaz-Pride
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
286 picks · 431 bans
Tidehunter
270 picks · 401 bans
Monkey King
263 picks · 672 bans
Bane
256 picks · 194 bans
Weaver
236 picks · 475 bans
Snapfire
221 picks · 121 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 256 bans
Lina
211 picks · 481 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:39
Omega Gaming 51%Gorillaz-Pride 49%
The model gave 51% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 48:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerMingatte
Phantom AssassinNaoG
Void SpiritTano
MarsCara
BeastmasterLissex
Ember SpiritTaO
SnapfireDemon
Rubickd1smar
GyrocopterCHAAANNN
DisruptorGenek
Game 2prediction missed20:47
Omega Gaming 51%Gorillaz-Pride 49%
The model gave 51% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMingatte
UrsaNaoG
Storm SpiritTano
LinaTaO
Dark SeerLissex
MarsCara
HoodwinkDemon
DisruptorGenek
Faceless VoidCHAAANNN
Shadow Demond1smar
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 53%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2