Interitus vs Inverse — prediction DPC2—ЮА · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3

result vs prediction

Interituswin 2:0

series probability

46%54%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Inverseloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Interitus

Axe

FCR · 2 games

Ancient Apparitionoften banned

DFlash · 1 game

Dragon Knight

H1j4ck · 1 game

Gyrocopteroften banned

FCR · 1 game

Linaoften banned

Rayuur · 1 game

Puckoften banned

Rayuur · 1 game

Winter Wyvernoften banned

DFlash · 1 game

Inverse

Ember Spiritoften banned

Migi · 1 game

Grimstroke

Slaw · 1 game

Kunkkaoften banned

Migi · 1 game

Witch Doctor

Slaw · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

287 picks · 429 bans

48%

Tidehunter

269 picks · 400 bans

44%

Monkey King

263 picks · 669 bans

60%

Bane

255 picks · 193 bans

59%

Weaver

235 picks · 472 bans

55%

Snapfire

219 picks · 119 bans

48%

Void Spirit

213 picks · 257 bans

45%

Lina

211 picks · 483 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength52% Inverse

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total54% Inverse

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed30:18

Interitus 48%Inverse 52%

The model gave 52% on Inverse — the game was taken by Interitus in 36:12.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo