Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Gyrocopteroften banned
V-Tune · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
Shadow Demon
RodjER · 3 games
Axe
RAMZES666 · 2 games
Dark Willow
RodjER · 2 games
Hoodwink
RodjER · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
No[o]ne · 2 games
Lion
RodjER · 2 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
287 picks · 429 bans
Tidehunter
269 picks · 400 bans
Monkey King
263 picks · 669 bans
Bane
255 picks · 193 bans
Weaver
235 picks · 472 bans
Snapfire
219 picks · 119 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 257 bans
Lina
211 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:30
Natus Vincere 46%PuckChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 43:46.
Game 2prediction correct13:28
Natus Vincere 46%PuckChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 46:52.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 54%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2