Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 22 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
Bane
VANSKOR · 13 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 12 games
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
286 picks · 431 bans
Tidehunter
269 picks · 401 bans
Monkey King
262 picks · 671 bans
Bane
253 picks · 193 bans
Weaver
236 picks · 472 bans
Snapfire
219 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 257 bans
Lina
212 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:34
Team Empire 64%AS Monaco Gambit 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 37:15.
Game 2prediction missed16:29
Team Empire 64%AS Monaco Gambit 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 34:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 64%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2