Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Lionsignature
cml · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Boomy · 8 games
Silenceroften banned
cml · 7 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 5 games
Grimstroke
cml · 5 games
Talon Esports
Bane
Fly · 5 games
Dark Willow
Hyde · 4 games
Doomoften banned
kpii · 2 games
Elder Titan
kpii · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
kpii · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
284 picks · 427 bans
Tidehunter
269 picks · 400 bans
Monkey King
261 picks · 666 bans
Bane
249 picks · 190 bans
Weaver
233 picks · 469 bans
Snapfire
216 picks · 116 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 257 bans
Lina
211 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:25
Polaris Esports 45%Talon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorNatsumi
TerrorbladeGabbi
DoomForce
Ember SpiritMikoto
MarsMac
Death Prophetkpii
LionBoomy
Monkey KingHyde
Ogre Magicml
GrimstrokeFly
Game 2prediction missed26:9
Polaris Esports 42%Talon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
TerrorbladeGabbi
LeshracMac
PuckMikoto
MagnusForce
Spirit Breakerkpii
SnapfireBoomy
WeaverFly
Enchantresscml
Dark WillowHyde
Game 3prediction missed31:10
Polaris Esports 45%Talon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNatsumi
Drow RangerGabbi
Death ProphetMac
Queen of PainMikoto
PangolierForce
Tidehunterkpii
UndyingBoomy
SnapfireHyde
Banecml
Ogre MagiFly
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 61%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3