Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
InterActive Philippines
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Kim0 · 4 games
Lion
Matt · 3 games
Rubick
Matt · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Marb · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Luciano · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
282 picks · 427 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 399 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 665 bans
Bane
247 picks · 190 bans
Weaver
233 picks · 467 bans
Snapfire
215 picks · 115 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 257 bans
Lina
211 picks · 482 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% InterActive Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:11
Lilgun 40%InterActive Philippines 60%
The model gave 60% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 34:33.
Game 2prediction correct15:42
Lilgun 40%InterActive Philippines 60%
The model gave 60% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 29:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteInterActive Philippines · 60%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2