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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 20 games
55%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 16 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 16 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
46%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 11 games
55%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
30%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 24 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 12 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Fearless · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Q · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
279 picks · 420 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
268 picks · 397 bans
44%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 654 bans
60%
Bane
Bane
244 picks · 187 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
233 picks · 455 bans
55%
Lina
Lina
212 picks · 477 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
210 picks · 257 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
207 picks · 107 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total71% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
Execration 37%Motivate.Trust Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 24:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBob
44% · 255 games59% · 206 games
Wraith KingJaCkky
Wraith King
Mars
MarsKimizu
45% · 331 game57% · 209 games
Ember SpiritFearless
Ember Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRR
43% · 200 games57% · 162 games
MiranaQ
Mirana
50% · 209 games
Snapfireboombell
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct13:41
Execration 38%Motivate.Trust Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 31:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
46% · 147 games51% · 103 games
Wraith KingJaCkky
Wraith King
Timbersaw
TimbersawKimizu
50% · 125 games55% · 42 games
Queen of PainFearless
Queen of Pain
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRR
45% · 209 games53% · 129 games
Earth SpiritQ
Earth Spirit
53% · 207 games
Lionboombell
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 71%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2