Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Lion
Tims · 10 games
Dragon Knight
Bok · 9 games
Phoenix
Boomy · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Boomy · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Bok · 7 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Armel · 7 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
277 picks · 420 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 397 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 652 bans
Bane
243 picks · 186 bans
Weaver
233 picks · 454 bans
Lina
212 picks · 477 bans
Void Spirit
210 picks · 256 bans
Lion
207 picks · 107 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total71% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:41
TNC Predator 29%T1 71%
The model gave 71% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 34:27.
Game 2prediction correct17:37
TNC Predator 29%T1 71%
The model gave 71% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 39:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 71%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2