Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 11 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 11 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Skiter · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Fata · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
278 picks · 419 bans
Tidehunter
273 picks · 396 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 652 bans
Bane
243 picks · 183 bans
Weaver
231 picks · 448 bans
Lina
218 picks · 481 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 265 bans
Lion
207 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:39
Alliance 30%Tundra Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:31.
Game 2prediction correct14:50
Alliance 30%Tundra Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2